The Lottery Ticket Speech: Why SF Still Matters in Tech and Venture

Despite the pandemic-era decentralization of tech, some truths only got stronger—proximity still shapes opportunity, and San Francisco remains a gravity well for venture.

Hand full of lottery tickets

There’s a little speech I used to give—mostly to friends, family, founders, and anyone who would listen—especially if they were debating whether to move to San Francisco or stay put.

I called it the Lottery Ticket Speech.

The core idea is simple:
In any industry, life offers a handful of “lottery tickets.” Rare, high-upside opportunities that can change your trajectory—if you’re in the right place, at the right time, with the right relationships.

You’re going to get some lottery tickets no matter where you live.
But the closer you are to the center of gravity for your industry, the more shots you get.

In tech and venture, San Francisco is still that sun.

I gave this speech once to a founder couple in 2018, just after they’d sold their company and were figuring out their next move. Within nine months, they were living in the Bay. I’ve given versions of it many times since, because the truth of it hasn’t changed. If anything, it’s gotten stronger.

Now, a lot of people believe the pandemic changed this. Remote work, Zoom, asynchronous everything—geography doesn’t matter anymore, right?

I never fully bought it. Early-career? Maybe.
But mid-career and up—when the biggest, rarest tickets start to matter—proximity matters. Density matters. Serendipity matters.

Here’s what those lottery tickets can look like in our world:

• Investing in a breakout startup or fund

• Landing carry or LP slots

• Joining a startup at just the right growth moment

• Taking advisory shares or board seats

• Teaming up with co-founders

• Being present when new movements take shape

One small example: during New York Tech Week this year, a foundation I advise tried to pull together a dinner of top venture folks. Most of the key people were all in San Francisco during NY Tech Week. Gravity wins.

Now, I’ll be the first to say SF isn’t perfect.
I’ve always said it’s the IPA of cities—acquired taste.
Or maybe it’s more like if college were a city: all the energy and optimism, and all the same town/gown divides and dysfunctions that come with it.

But flaws and all, it remains the best gravitational field for technology and venture capital. You can choose to orbit it remotely with strong relationships, but even then, you’ll be on planes a lot.

And you should be honest with yourself about ambition. Some people want one or two lottery tickets, and that’s enough. Others want a stack. But don’t tell yourself gravity doesn’t exist. It does.

Curious where others see gravity wells in their industries today. Pushback welcome.