Why Venture’s Best Opportunities Are Moving to the Edges
A Swimming with Allocators episode.
Kate Simpson started her career as a history major. No finance background, no roadmap. The UNC endowment took a chance on her anyway, and she spent the first stretch of her career doing exactly what a non-finance person does in that seat: listening, asking questions, and building mental models from scratch. She took intro accounting classes at night to supplement what she was learning during the day. She went deeper inside private assets because that was where her team spent most of its energy. And she kept going, from Parish Capital to TrueBridge, where she spent twelve years watching the venture industry scale and evolve in real time, to now leading the venture strategy at GEM, a multi-asset OCIO firm that has been around since 2007.
What struck me about Kate’s path is that it never looked like the fastest way to the top. It looked like someone trying to genuinely understand the craft before assuming they had mastered it. That patience, which is different from caution, runs through how she thinks about everything from building a new venture program to evaluating an emerging manager for the first time.
There is a concept that came up early in our conversation that I want to dwell on before we get to the barbell. Kate described what she looks for in any venture manager as three things: how they source, how they pick, and how they win. The sequence matters. You cannot pick or win consistently unless you are sourcing in the right places. That means the first thing she wants to walk away from an initial meeting understanding is the manager’s network, specifically what ponds they are fishing in and whether those networks carry a real edge.
That is a different question than most GPs think they are being asked. Most people walk into an LP meeting ready to talk about portfolio performance or investment thesis. Kate is asking something that comes earlier: where are you finding things that other people are not finding yet? The answer to that question is more predictive than almost anything else.
The barbell idea is where GEM’s strategy gets interesting. Kate is clear that access to scaled platforms still matters, but argues that the alpha in today’s market is increasingly at the edges. On one end, a handful of top-tier, established platforms retain real competitive advantage. On the other end, the small, craft-driven funds that most institutional programs cannot or do not prioritize are generating the kind of right-tail skew that makes the math work. The middle, the firms that are too big to win at the seed stage but too small to compete with multi-billion-dollar platforms at Series A, is where she is spending proportionally less time.
The math point is not abstract. GEM builds what Kate calls a “what you need to believe” model for every manager who advances in their pipeline. It overlays fund size against target ownership, number of positions, reserve strategy, and a practical range of outcomes to pressure-test whether it is reasonable to expect a 3x, a 5x, or better. One strong outcome returning the fund, not necessarily a unicorn, is the baseline they are testing for. The point is not to find reasons to say no. The point is to know, specifically, what has to be true.
The sub-$200M threshold GEM uses for their dedicated seed and micro fund vehicle is a version of that same discipline applied at the portfolio level. There is something they are protecting when they draw that line, and it is not just vintage diversification. It is the recognition that the fund math on a small, concentrated, high-ownership fund looks different from the math on anything larger, and that difference is worth constructing around deliberately.
Kate also talked about something I have been thinking about more lately, which is what this AI cycle actually looks like from an LP seat. Her read is that we are in early innings of a genuine paradigm shift, comparable to the move to mobile or the move to cloud but potentially larger in terms of the size of outcomes being created. Companies staying private longer has helped the secondary market grow into a real asset class rather than a niche workaround. That normalization changes what liquidity looks like for early investors and founders in ways that would have been unimaginable a decade ago.
Nick Cassin from Sidley also joined us to break down the secondary market side of this. The numbers alone tell the story: from roughly $20 billion in annual transaction volume when he started in 2010 to potentially north of $250 billion today. Continuation vehicles, once a niche exit mechanism, have become a mainstream strategy. The pool of buyers has expanded dramatically. That is not just a market structure observation. It changes how GPs should think about what they are building and how they are building it.
The through line I keep coming back to from this conversation is that the best managers Kate has worked with over her career share one characteristic above most others: they know what they are good at and they stay focused on it. Not because they lack ambition, but because discipline around the edges of your own competence is what lets you build a durable brand and a repeatable process. That is true for fund managers and, honestly, for anyone trying to build something that compounds over time.
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with gratitude,
earnest